Colonie, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

373
FXUS61 KALY 241115
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
615 AM EST Sat Jan 24 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Snow totals slightly increased over the eastern Catskills,
Berkshires and southern Greens with up to two feet possible
from the significant snowstorm Sunday through Monday. 12-18" of
snowfall is on track for the rest of eastern NY and western New
England.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dangerous cold and low wind chill values continue this
morning into the afternoon resulting in an increased risk for
hypothermia and frostbite.

2) A long duration snowstorm will bring a widespread heavy
snowfall Sunday into Monday with significant travel impacts and
considerable disruptions to daily life.

3) Continued well-below normal temperatures with low wind chill
values expected through much of the upcoming week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1:

Strong cold advection continues in the wake of the arctic front
this morning. Winds gusted 40-45 mph at Albany and Pittsfield
shortly before and just after midnight. The jail break of
arctic air sweeping across the region continues with temps
falling into the single digits to below zero. The deeper mixing
has allowed for the gusty winds which should allow the winds to
decrease in the late morning into the afternoon with the
boundary layer stabilizing. H850 temps fall to -24C to -28C
over the forecast area this morning. These temps are -2 to -3
STDEVS below normal based on the latest NAEFS. Morning lows will
be  0 to 5F below zero in most locations with a few single
digits in the mid Hudson Valley, 5 to 15 below zero north and
west of the Capital Region, except 15 to 20 below zero or so
over portions of the Adirondack Park and southern Greens. The
winds (10 to 20 mph) combined with the cold temps will generate
wind chill or "feel-like" temps 10 to 35 degrees below zero.
The lowest bone chilling readings will be over the southern
Dacks, southern Greens and northern Berkshires. Max temps will
be in the single digits to lower teens in the valleys...with 5
below zero to mid single digits over the higher terrain. We
trended colder than the NBM max temps and closer to the ECM and
MAV MOS numbers.

Frostbite can occur in as little as 10 to 30 minutes with
wind chills/"feels-like temps" this frigid, so anyone spending
any type of prolonged time outdoors this morning needs to take
extreme caution on any exposed skin. Hypothermia will be a risk
for people spending a lot of time outdoors as well. Cold
Weather Advisories and Extreme Cold Warnings remain in place
through this morning/early pm for all of eastern NY and western
New England.

KEY MESSAGE 2:

Old Man Winter is/will be impacting much of the lower 48 east
of the Rockies with a major winter storm. An arctic anticyclone
around 1040 hPa will settle over NY and New England tonight. A
major storm system will be organizing over the lower MS River
Valley and Deep South tonight. Another frigid night is expected
for the forecast area but with less wind. No Cold Weather
headlines at this time with just some numbers nicking criteria
in the southern Dacks. Abundant arctic air will be entrenched
over the region. Lows fall to zero to 15 below outside the
Capital Region and mid Hudson River Valley with single digits
in these areas, as mid and high clouds increase from the south
and west with an inverted sfc trough near the lower MS and TN
River Valleys.

The morning will start out mainly dry with a chance of some
light snow developing south of the Capital Region before noon,
and then rapidly expanding across the entire forecast area in
the afternoon into the early evening beginning the travel
problems. The frigid air mass will allow for a drier, fluffier
snow with snow to liquid ratios above normal in the 15-20:1
range. A tremendous fetch of Gulf and Atlantic moisture will
occur Sun-Sun night. PWATs will run 1 to 2 STDEVs above normal
with IVT values 2-4 STDEVs above normal based on the NAEFS. The
latest GFS/ECMWF shows the low to mid level FGEN in the 850-700
hPA layer to rapidly increase south to southeast of the Capital
late Sun pm into the early evening with the primary low moving
towards the Ohio Valley and a secondary low near the Delmarva
Coast. The strong FGEN should allow for snowfall rates to
increase to 1-2"/hr. The latest HREFS at the end of the forecast
cycle show probabilities of 1"/hr snowfall rates Sun pm in the
70-80+ percent range from the Capital District/Berkshires south
and east.

Some of the guidance does show a mix line with some sleet
getting close to the I-84 briefly Sun night with the secondary
cyclone forming and moving slowly northeast of coastal NJ to
south of Long Island. We held as all snow for now and will
monitor for a possible dry slot Sun night/Mon morning possibly
reaching the southeast zone. For now, have forecast snow...heavy
at times...overnight. It should pile up and will be
orographically enhanced some off the the eastern Catskills,
Berkshires, and southern Greens. The synoptic and mesoscale set-
up indicates the possibility of a Laterally Translating Snow
Band per the collaborative CSTAR research with UAlbany with a
dual-jet streak, strong WAA/isentropic lift, strong low to mid
level FGEN north/northeast of the coastal wave and warm front
Sun night into Mon morning. If the mesoscale band forms we will
see snow rates blossom to 2-3+ inches per hour for parts of the
region. Snow to liquid ratios may lower to 12-18:1 over the
region, but still the snow should pile up with temps in the
single digits to lower teens (maybe below zero over the southern
Dacks). Winds should not be an issue. A slight decrease in the
snowfall may occur towards day break with the dry slot
south/southeast and the coastal low slowly jogging to the
north/northeast towards Cape Cod. However, the mid and upper
level deformation zone to the system and a secondary short-wave
in the southwest flow should keep periods of light to moderate
snow going through the morning into the afternoon over most of
the forecast area.

Total QPF prior to 7 pm Mon looks to be 0.70 to 1.25" over the
forecast area. Strong QG lift through the dendritic growth zone
(DGZ) should allow for good pcpn efficiency. Expecting
widespread 12-18" with 18-24" possible over the eastern
Catskills, Berkshires, and southern Greens. The bottom of the
Top 10 for Albany greatest Jan snowstorms (going back to 1885)
is the MLK storm of Jan 19-20 2019 when 13.9" fell. Albany has a
good chance for 15" or so of snow. Number 1 on the Jan list is
24.5" that occurred 15-16 Jan 1983. That was an incredible storm
for eastern NY and western New England and memorable in Troy for
this forecaster with around 2 feet occurring. This will be the
biggest and most widespread storm since March 13-14 2023 (10.1")
and possibly the biggest since December 16-17 2020 (22.9").

The snow tapers to snow showers and flurries late Monday pm and
early evening with additional light snow accums. More below
normal temps will occur heading into the mid week. The
significant winter storm will make travel extremely difficult
and dangerous Sunday afternoon into Sunday night, with intense
snowfall rates, hefty amounts of snow, low visibilities and very
cold temp expected. The Monday morning and perhaps the Monday
evening commute will be impacted. Some improvement is expected
by the late afternoon/early evening.

KEY MESSAGE 3:

For much of next week, we will remain under persistent large-scale
upper troughing, while at the surface high pressure will be building
over the Northern Plains. This will keep much of the Northeast in a
cold airmass with below-normal temperatures, while the sfc high to
our west will result in NW flow and low-level cold advection. The
coldest period looks to be Tuesday night through Thursday night,
when many areas could see lows below 0 again. With the high to the
west and breezy conditions at times, wind chills will feel even
colder than the actual air temperatures, so it is possible that some
cold weather advisories may be needed next week for part of the TUE-
THU timeframe. Additionally, some lake effect snow will be possible
in the western ADKs next week, although low confidence on timing and
placement of any lake bands this far out.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 12z Sunday...Flying conditions are VFR at all terminals
as of 6:05 AM EST, which should continue through the end of the
TAF period. Mainly clear skies expected through this morning,
then high clouds begin to increase this afternoon and evening,
thickening and lowering as the night goes on to 8000 - 12000 ft
by 12z Sunday. Snow mainly expected to hold off until after 12z
Sunday, but did include a prob30 at POU for the tail end of the
TAF period for some light snow showers. Winds will be from the
W/NW at 7-10 kt with gusts of 15-20 kt through much of today.
Gusts subside after sunset with winds diminishing to around 5
kt from the N/NW, then winds diminish to 5 kt or less after
midnight.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite SN.
Monday: High Operational Impact. Definite SN.
Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHSN.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.CLIMATE...
January 24

Record Cold High Temperatures:

Albany, NY: -1 degrees set in 1882
Glens Falls, NY: 0 degrees set in 1907
Poughkeepsie, NY: 8 degrees set in 1948

Record Cold Low Temperatures:

Albany, NY: -17 degrees set in 1948
Glens Falls, NY: -30 degrees set in 2011
Poughkeepsie, NY: -15 degrees set in 1961

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for CTZ001-
     013.
     Winter Storm Warning from 7 AM Sunday to 7 PM EST Monday for
     CTZ001-013.
NY...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for NYZ040-
     041-043-047>053-058>061-063>066-083-084.
     Winter Storm Warning from 7 AM Sunday to 7 PM EST Monday for
     NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
     Extreme Cold Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for NYZ032-
     033-038-039-042-054-082.
MA...Winter Storm Warning from 7 AM Sunday to 7 PM EST Monday for
     MAZ001-025.
     Extreme Cold Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for MAZ001-
     025.
VT...Winter Storm Warning from 7 AM Sunday to 7 PM EST Monday for
     VTZ013>015.
     Extreme Cold Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
     VTZ013>015.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...15/35
AVIATION...35
CLIMATE...31